On the factors influencing confidence in models and simulations for decision-making: a survey

Over the last decades, modeling and simulation have become central methods in engineering design. Today's technologies enable previously unachievable levels of sophistication and accuracy. However, if decision-makers are unaware of the confidence they can place in models and simulations (M&S), they either fail to leverage their potential by not involving them in processes or make judgments based on unreliable results. Assessments to evaluate M&S exist, but factors that enable decision-makers to have confidence and improve acceptance of using M&S need to be researched in more detail. Therefore, a literature review analyzing design requirements and an online survey to measure factors associated with confidence were conducted. As a result, the survey identified nine predictors of confidence: (1) capability, (2) history, (3) validity, (4) reliability and (5) accessibility of the model. Further, (6) integrity and (7) competence of the modeler, as well as (8) trusting nature and (9) risk awareness of the stakeholder were identified. Having confidence in M&S results significantly increases the reliance on them and leads to better-informed decision-making. Therefore, based on the findings, a framework and an initial application model were developed. The results were initially evaluated and are described.