Landslide failure time prediction with a new model: case studies in Fushun west open pit mine, China

Landslides often impose irreversible costs on infrastructure and economies worldwide. Achieving a reasonably accurate forecast of landslide failure time enables the avoidance of human losses, the reduction of property damage, and aids in the development of appropriate countermeasures. This study presents a novel landslide failure time prediction model using displacement-time data as the input parameters of the model, which combines creep theory analysis and a large amount of monitoring data. This model can dynamically adjust the shape of displacement fitting curve by altering the parameters based on the use of the trust region algorithm, allowing it to match the evolutionary characteristics of a landslide. And the estimated landslide failure time was determined in accordance with established prediction criteria. An analysis was conducted on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of geohazards in the Fushun west open pit mine, with three specific landslide events were chosen as case studies. The prediction results of landslides showed that the estimated failure time for landslide cases I, II and III were March 8, 2014, August 13, 2019 at 8:10 and August 21, 2020 at 0:27, respectively, which closely aligns with the real failure time. These findings demonstrate that the novel model used for landslide failure time prediction in open pit mine has a high level of credibility and precision.