Association of transit-oriented development with transit use: Effects of gentrification and spatial autocorrelation

The empirical evidence in the existing literature primarily supports the positive association of transit-oriented development (TOD) with transit use. However, indirect relationships between TOD and transit use may be observed due to TOD-induced gentrification and spatial autocorrelation. This research examined the relationships between TOD, gentrification, and transit use with the consideration of spatial autocorrelation. The study observations were from the gentrifiable neighborhoods in Taipei City, Taiwan, and were analyzed using simultaneous equation models and spatial regression methods. Empirical results reveal three major findings: 1) A positive and direct association of TOD-ness with the modal share of transit substantially occurs and confirms the findings in the existing literature. 2) A negative and indirect association of TOD with transit use mediated by gentrification may occur under the moderation of rising car ownership. 3) A positive spatial autocorrelation of transit use substantially occurs between adjacent neighborhoods. These findings prompt local administrations to implement TOD policies containing or being accompanied by instruments inhibiting car ownership throughout urban areas rather than just along major transit corridors.