Evaluating the impacts of climatic factors and global climate change on the yield and resource use efficiency of winter wheat in China

Global climate change has profound impacts on agricultural production, and it includes increasing temperature, global dimming, altered precipitation patterns, and elevated CO2 concentration. However, the comprehensive assessment of the impact of different individual climatic factors and their interactions on crop production is relatively limited. Here we assessed the impacts of climate change and different climatic factors on winter wheat yields, interannual yield variability, and resource use efficiency in China from 1980 to 2020, with four wheat crop models (DSSAT-CERES-Wheat, DSSAT-Nwheat, WheatGrow, and APSIM-Wheat). The results showed that climate change was estimated to decrease wheat yields and increase interannual yield variability in the main winter wheat production region of China, especially in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangzi River Subregion, where yield reduction and the coefficient of variation increase could be 4.3 % and 30.2%, respectively. Without considering the CO2 effect, the primary reason for yield decrease and interannual yield variability increase was the interactions of temperature and solar radiation across the main winter wheat production region of China, and wheat yields were estimated to decrease by 9.2 % in the Southwest Subregion while the interannual yield variability increased by 49.5 % in the Middle-lower Reaches of the Yangzi River Subregion. The elevated CO2 concentration was mostly beneficial, manifested as increasing the yield and decreasing interannual yield variability, but it could not fully offset negative impacts of climate change. Moreover, radiation use efficiency increased while heat use efficiency and precipitation use efficiency decreased during the study period. It is imperative to consider the diverse climatic factors and their respective regional impacts when adapting to climate change in China.