A condition-based maintenance optimization method with oscillating uncertain degradation process

Condition-based maintenance (CBM) has gradually gained more attention, and the degradation process has been increasingly applied to maintenance optimization models. The insufficient data and the complex degradation process of the equipment conditions will contribute to epistemic uncertainty. Besides, the implementation of maintenance introduces oscillatory features into the equipment degradation process, deviating from a monotonically decreasing trend, complicating the optimization of CBM. In this article, to simultaneously address the problem of epistemic uncertainty and consider the influence of inspection and maintenance, we establish a new type of degradation model based on uncertainty theory to deal with epistemic uncertainty. Then an uncertain maintenance optimization model is proposed to give an optimal CBM strategy. Finally, a case study is provided to illustrate the proposed CBM optimization method.