Adaptive management: are important environmental concepts understood and valued by the public?

In areas where science is quite incomplete, such as in the deployment and use of new environmental water reserves, it might be reasonable to expect that managers will be learning 'on the job' or 'learning by doing' as they seek to apply best available science to decision making. Similarly, it might be expected that the public would have some empathy for the challenges facing environmental managers with incomplete data on which to base decisions. However, there is also a contrasting body of literature that shows the preferences of the public and voters for certainty in outcomes. This article reviews the status of adaptive management in the context of using water to bolster environmental outcomes. We also report the results of a discrete choice experiment where respondents were asked to assign a value to adaptive management undertaken by water managers. The article reports the difficulties of developing an attribute along these lines and the challenges of encouraging the public to engage with the concept and place a value on it. This provides a platform for considering what this means more generally for environmental interventions and the acceptance of environmental policies where ecological outcomes are frequently uncertain.