Comprehensive susceptibility assessment of continental glacier ice avalanches: a case study of glaciers on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau

Glacial stability on the Tibetan Plateau has declined sharply in the context of global warming. Previously, continental glaciers on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau were considered stable and had little susceptibility to ice collapse. However, in recent years, numerous continental glacier ice collapses have resulted in significant economic losses, casualties, and ecological environmental damage. This study focused on eight watersheds in the Ngari Prefecture of the northwest Tibetan Autonomous Region, specifically in the upper reaches of Zecuo Lake. Continental glacier ice-avalanche disaster factors were examined based on topography, climate, and geological structure. This study proposes a continental glacier ice-avalanche susceptibility assessment method that considers both internal and external factors by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and cloud theory. A comprehensive evaluation and analysis revealed that the eight watersheds in the upstream study area of Zecuo Lake were greatly affected by climate change and geological structure, and the susceptibility assessment ratings for all glaciers were high. Therefore, it is essential to strengthen the monitoring and early warning systems in areas of human activity. The findings of this study provide a scientific basis for predicting, preventing, and mitigating continental glacier avalanche disasters on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, the proposed method can be applied to areas with similar geological conditions.