Integrating quantitative microbiological risk assessment and disability-adjusted life years to evaluate the effects of urbanization on health risks for river recreationists

Urban rivers provide an excellent opportunity for water recreation. This study probabilistically assessed health risks associated with water recreation in urban rivers in the Bitan Scenic Area, Taiwan, by employing quantitative microbial risk assessment and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Moreover, the effects of urbanization on the health risks of river recreation induced by waterborne pathogenic Escherichia coli (E. coli) were investigated. First, data on river E. coli levels were collected in both the Bitan Scenic Area and the upstream river section, and model parameters were obtained through a questionnaire administered to river recreationists. Monte Carlo simulation was then employed to address parameter uncertainty. Finally, DALYs were calculated to quantify the cumulative effects in terms of potential life lost and years lived with disability. The results indicated that the 90 % confidence intervals for the disease burden (DB) were 0.2-74.1 x 10-6, 0.01-94.0 x 10-6, and 0.3-128.9 x 10-6 DALY per person per year (pppy) for canoeing, swimming, and fishing, respectively, in the Bitan Scenic Area. Furthermore, urbanization near the Bitan Scenic Area approximately doubled the DB risks to river recreationists in upstream rural areas. At the 95th percentile, the DB risks exceeded the tolerances recommended by the World Health Organization (1 x 10-6) or U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1 x 10-4). The findings suggest that the simultaneous implementation of effluent sewer systems and best management