Human Health Risk Assessment of Aflatoxin M1 in Dairy Products - A Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) Approach

Mycotoxins are toxins produced naturally by fungi on crops given appropriate environmental conditions. Toxins may transfer into animal products, such as milk and meat, when animals consume the mycotoxin-contaminated feed. Due to climate change, variations in global surface temperatures and precipitation patterns are expected to occur over the next decade. These changes may increase the prevalence and levels of mycotoxins in crops, resulting in a potential increase in the presence of mycotoxins in dairy products and meat through bio-transfer. This study carried out a comparative risk assessment using literature-based data to evaluate the risk to human health from aflatoxin M1 in milk and milk products (cheese and yogurt) when cattle are fed imported grains or a mix of homegrown maize and imported grains. The potential disease burden of hepatocellular cancer caused by human exposure to aflatoxin M1 through consumption of dairy products was calculated using the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) method. The results highlighted that Irish grown maize in anwith imported feed mixture was comparatively safer (0.0013-0.0014 DALYs per 100,000 people) than imported feed grain components (0.0059-0.0063 DALYs per 100,000 people). While the sensitivity analysis revealed that the carry-over rate had the most influence on the output (correlation coefficient 0.68) followed by concentration in maize (0.41) for the imported feed grain scenario, while the concentration in soybeans (0.42) and cheese consumption (0.34) were the most sensitive parameters in the Irish grown maize with imported feed grains mix scenario. The results obtained in this study facilitate the identification of risk reduction measures to limit mycotoxin contamination of dairy products in light of potential climate change influences.