Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment: Lower Zab River Basin (Iraq and Iran)

被引:3
|
作者
Mohammed, Ruqayah [1 ]
Scholz, Miklas [2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ,6 ]
机构
[1] Univ Babylon, Fac Engn, Dept Civil Engn, POB 4, Hilla, Iraq
[2] Bau & Serv Oberursel, Dept Urban Drainage, POB 1280, D-61402 Oberursel, Taunus, Germany
[3] Univ Johannesburg, Sch Civil Engn & Built Environm, Dept Civil Engn Sci, Kingsway Campus, ZA-2092 Johannesburg, South Africa
[4] South Ural State Univ Natl Res Univ, Dept Town Planning Engn Networks & Syst, 76 Lenin Prospekt, Chelyabinsk 454080, Russia
[5] Kunststoff Tech Adams, Schulstr 7, D-26931 Elsfleth, Germany
[6] Nexus Sweden, Skepparbacken 5, S-72211 Vasteras, Sweden
关键词
climate scenario; general circulation model; hydro-climatic variable prediction; Lesser Zab River Basin; reservoir performance; RECONNAISSANCE DROUGHT INDEX; WATER-RESOURCES; VARIABILITY; RELIABILITY; ADAPTATION; MANAGEMENT; REGIONS;
D O I
10.3390/atmos15060673
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Selecting appropriate climate change scenarios is crucial, as it influences the outcomes of climate change impact studies. Several storylines could be used to investigate the sensitivity of water resource schemes to weather variability and improve policymakers' adaptation strategies. This study proposes a comprehensive and generic methodology for assessing the future climate change impact on semi-arid and arid zones at the basin scale by comparing delta perturbation scenarios to the outcomes of seven collections of GCMs (general circulation models). The findings indicate that the two scenarios predicted nearly identical declines in average reservoir discharges over a monthly timescale. Consequently, their maximum values are almost similar. The projected decrease in the streamflow for the period 2080-2099 is approximately 48%-the same as the ratio from the delta perturbation scenario of Future16 (a 30% precipitation decrease and a 30% potential evapotranspiration increase). Furthermore, delta perturbation scenarios allow the impacts of model sensitivity to climate change to be clearly identified in relation to GCM scenarios. Delta perturbation scenarios allow for an extensive collection of possible climate changes at the regional scale. In addition, delta perturbation scenarios are simpler to create and use; therefore, they might complement GCM scenarios.
引用
收藏
页数:24
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