The HadGEM3-GC3.1 Contribution to the CMIP6 Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project

The UK contribution to the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), part of the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is described. The lower atmosphere and ocean resolution configuration of the latest Hadley Centre global environmental model, HadGEM3-GC3.1, is used to create simulations driven either with historical changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, or natural climate factors. Global mean near-surface air temperatures from the HadGEM3-GC31-LL simulations are consistent with CMIP6 model ensembles for the equivalent experiments. While the HadGEM3-GC31-LL simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcing factors capture the overall observed warming, the lack of marked simulated warming until the 1990s is diagnosed as due to aerosol cooling mostly offsetting the well-mixed greenhouse gas warming until then. The model has unusual temperature variability over the Southern Ocean related to occasional deep convection bringing heat to the surface. This is most prominent in the model's aerosol only simulations, which have the curious feature of warming in the high southern latitudes, while the rest of the globe cools, a behavior not seen in other CMIP6 models. This has implications for studies that assume model responses, from different climate drivers, can be linearly combined. While DAMIP was predominantly designed for detection and attribution studies, the experiments are also very valuable for understanding how different climate drivers influence a model, and thus for interpretating the responses of combined anthropogenic and natural driven simulations. We recommend institutions provide model simulations for the high priority DAMIP experiments. We describe the UK submission to the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP), using the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model. The model's near-surface temperature responses to different human and natural climate drivers are compared with other climate models and observed temperature changes. The experiments help to understand the evolution of the model's simulated historical global temperatures. One of the more interesting model features is the variability in the Southern Ocean which manifests itself as occasional surface warming due to deep ocean heat coming to the surface. This behavior, which occurs more often in simulations that cool than in simulations that warm, appears to be unusual compared to other models. The investigation of this model behavior demonstrates that DAMIP model experiments are not just useful for climate change detection and attribution, but also for understanding how a model responds to different climate drivers. Climate model participation in DAMIP is encouraged. The UK's contribution to the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison project (DAMIP) is described The climate model's global temperature response to different anthropogenic and natural drivers is examined and compared to other models Southern Ocean temperature variability is unusual and sensitive to climate driver