Spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions from the construction industry in the Belt and Road region of China

To promote sustainable economic development in the Belt and Road region of China, reducing carbon emissions is essential. The construction industry is a major contributor to carbon emissions in China. Therefore, studying the dynamic evolution of carbon emissions from the construction industry in this region and its driving factors is of great significance for effectively controlling emissions and achieving China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. This paper first employs the Slope model, Moran's I index, and standard deviation ellipse to reveal the spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions from the construction industry, and then applies the geographical detector model to identify the main driving factors of carbon emissions. The results indicate that: (1) From 2006 to 2021, the total carbon emissions showed a fluctuating growth trend, and there were significant differences in emissions among different regions. (2) Carbon emissions in most provinces exhibited a moderate growth trend, and there was significant spatial correlation and aggregation of inter-provincial emissions. Regional carbon emissions from 2006 to 2021 showed a spatial distribution pattern from northeast to southwest, with a weakening trend, and the center of gravity mainly distributed in the east of the region. (3) Labor input, urbanization rate, total output value of the construction industry, degree of opening up, and energy intensity are the main factors influencing the spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions from the construction industry, and the majority of the interaction types between factors were bivariate enhancement. This study aims to provide theoretical support for policymakers to formulate appropriate policies for building energy conservation and emission reduction.