Ground-Level Ozone Forecasting Using Explainable Machine Learning

The ozone concentration at ground level is a pivotal indicator of air quality, as elevated ozone levels can lead to adverse effects on the environment. In this study various machine learning models for ground-level ozone forecasting are optimised using a Bayesian technique. Predictions are obtained 24 h in advance using historical ozone data and related environmental variables, including meteorological measurements and other air quality indicators. The results indicated that the Extra Trees model emerges as the optimal solution, showcasing competitive performance alongside reasonable training times. Furthermore, an explainable artificial intelligence technique is applied to enhance the interpretability of model predictions, providing insights into the contribution of input features to the predictions computed by the model. The features identified as important, namely PM10, air temperature and CO2 concentration, are validated as key factors in the literature to forecast ground-level ozone concentration.