Responses of Ecosystem Services to Land Use/Cover Changes in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas: A Case Study of the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration

The rapid expansion of built-up land, a hallmark of accelerated urbanization, has emerged as a pivotal factor contributing to regional climate change and the degradation of ecosystem functions. The decline in ecosystem service value (ESV) has consequently garnered significant attention in global sustainable development research. The Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is crucial for promoting the construction of the Yellow River Economic Belt in China, with its ecological status increasingly gaining prominence. This study investigated the ESV response to land use/cover change (LUCC) through the elasticity coefficient in order to analyze the degree of disturbance caused by land use activities on ecosystem functions in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. This analysis was based on the examination of LUCC characteristics and ESV from 1990 to 2020. The findings reveal that (1) the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration experienced a continuous increase in the proportion of built-up land from 1990 to 2020, alongside a highly complex transfer between different land use types, characterized by diverse transfer trajectories. The most prominent features were noted to be the rapid expansion of built-up land and the simultaneous decline in agricultural land. (2) The analysis of four landscape pattern indices, encompassing Shannon's diversity index, indicates that the continuous development of urbanization has led to increased fragmentation in land use and decreased connectivity. However, obvious spatial distribution differences exist among different districts and counties. (3) The ESV was revised using the normalized difference vegetation index, revealing a slight decrease in the total ESV of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. However, significant differences were observed among districts and counties. The number of counties and districts exhibiting low and high ESVs continuously increased, whereas those with intermediate levels generally remained unchanged. (4) The analysis of the elasticity coefficient reveals that LUCC exerts a substantial disturbance and influence on ecosystem services, with the strongest disturbance ability occurring from 2000 to 2010. The elasticity coefficient exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity across both the entire urban agglomeration and within individual cities. Notably, Qingdao and Jinan, the dual cores of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, exhibit markedly distinct characteristics. These disparities are closely related to their development foundations in 1990 and their evolution over the past 30 years. The ESV response to LUCC displays significant variation across different time periods and spatial locations. Consequently, it is imperative to formulate dynamic management policies on the basis of regional characteristics. Such policies aim to balance social and economic development while ensuring ecological protection, thereby promoting the social and economic advancement and ecological environment preservation of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.