Predictors of exacerbation in Japanese patients with severe asthma: Analysis of the severe asthma research program (Okayama-SARP) cohort

Background: Because exacerbation of severe asthma decreases patients' quality of life, this study aimed to identify predictive factors for asthma exacerbation. Methods: Japanese patients with severe asthma requiring treatment according to the Global Initiative for Asthma (GINA) guidelines >= Step 4 between January 2018 and August 2021 were prospectively enrolled and followed up for one year at facilities participating in the Okayama Respiratory Disease Study Group (Okayama Severe Asthma Research Program). Results: A total of 85 patients (29 men and 56 women) were included. The median age was 64 (interquartile range [IQR], 51-72) years. Treatment according to GINA Steps 4 and 5 was required in 29 and 56 patients, respectively, and 44 patients (51.8%) were treated with biologics. The median peripheral-blood eosinophil count, fractional exhaled nitric oxide, IgE level, and percent predicted FEV1 (%FEV1) at enrollment were 204 (IQR, 49-436)/mu L, 28 (IQR, 15-43) ppb, 172 (IQR, 56-473) IU/mL, and 80.0 (IQR, 61.1-96.1) %, respectively. Exacerbation during the previous year, asthma control test (ACT) score <20, %FEV1 <60%, and serum IL-10 level >6.7 pg/mL were associated with exacerbation during the observation period. Conclusions: Exacerbation during the previous year, low ACT score, and low %FEV1 were predictive factors of future exacerbation, even in a cohort with >50% of patients treated with biologics. Furthermore, high serum IL10 levels might be a new predictive factor.