Nonstationary frequency analysis of extreme precipitation: Embracing trends in observations

被引:2
|
作者
Anzolin, Gabriel [1 ,3 ]
de Oliveira, Debora Y. [2 ]
Vrugt, Jasper A. [2 ]
Aghakouchak, Amir [2 ]
Chaffe, Pedro L. B. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Fed Santa Catarina, Grad Program Environm Engn, Florianopolis, Brazil
[2] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA USA
[3] Univ Fed Santa Catarina, Dept Sanit & Environm Engn, Florianopolis, Brazil
关键词
Frequency Analysis; Nonstationarity; Climate Change; Bayesian Inference; CLIMATE-CHANGE; STATIONARITY; RAINFALL; CURVES; UNCERTAINTY; RELIABILITY; FRAMEWORK; EVENTS; DEAD;
D O I
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131300
中图分类号
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号
0813 ;
摘要
Knowledge of the recurrence intervals of precipitation extremes is vital for infrastructure design, risk assessment, and insurance planning. However, trends and shifts in rainfall patterns globally pose challenges to the application of extreme value analysis (EVA) which relies critically on the assumption of stationarity. In this paper, we explore: (1) the suitability of nonstationary (NS) models in the presence of statistically significant trends, and (2) their potential in modeling out-of-sample data to improve frequency analysis of extreme precipitation. We analyze the benefits of using a nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model for annual extreme precipitation records from Southern Brazil. The location of the GEV distribution is allowed to change with time. The unknown GEV model parameters are estimated using Bayesian techniques coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we use GAME sampling to compute the evidence (and their ratios, the so-called Bayes factors) for stationary and nonstationary models of annual maximum precipitation. Our results show that the presence of a statistically significant trend in annual maximum precipitation alone does not justify the use of a NS model. The location parameter of the GEV distribution must also be well defined, otherwise, stationary models of annual maximum precipitation receive more support by the data. These findings reiterate the importance of accounting for GEV model parameters and predictive uncertainty in frequency analysis and hypothesis testing of annual maximum precipitation data records. Furthermore, a meaningful EVA demands detailed knowledge about the origin and persistence of observed changes.
引用
收藏
页数:10
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] L-moment statistics in extreme precipitation frequency analysis
    Julian, LT
    Vogel, JL
    14TH CONFERENCE ON PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS IN THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 1998, : J62 - J64
  • [22] L-moment statistics in extreme precipitation frequency analysis
    Julian, LT
    Vogel, JL
    NINTH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES, 1998, : J16 - J18
  • [23] Will a nonstationary change in extreme precipitation affect dam security in China?
    Huang, Hefei
    Cui, Huijuan
    Ge, Quansheng
    JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2021, 603
  • [24] An investigation into trends in frequency and proportion of different durations of various types of extreme precipitation in Iran
    Asakereh, Hossein
    Ashrafi, Saeideh
    METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, 2023, 30 (01)
  • [25] A comprehensive analysis of trends in extreme precipitation over southeastern coast of Brazil
    Zilli, Marcia T.
    Carvalho, Leila M. V.
    Liebmann, Brant
    Silva Dias, Maria A.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2017, 37 (05) : 2269 - 2279
  • [26] Increased frequency of extreme precipitation events in the North Atlantic during the PETM: Observations and theory
    Rush, William D.
    Kiehl, Jeffrey T.
    Shields, Christine A.
    Zachos, James C.
    PALAEOGEOGRAPHY PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY PALAEOECOLOGY, 2021, 568
  • [27] Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results
    Carvalho, M. J.
    Marta-Almeida, M.
    Melo-Goncalves, P.
    Rocha, A.
    PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH, 2016, 94 : 10 - 21
  • [28] A spatial and nonstationary model for the frequency of extreme rainfall events
    Gregersen, Ida Bulow
    Madsen, Henrik
    Rosbjerg, Dan
    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
    WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2013, 49 (01) : 127 - 136
  • [29] Nonstationary analysis of the extreme temperatures in Turkey
    Aksu, Hakan
    DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS, 2021, 95
  • [30] Extreme precipitation frequency in the Semiarid Southwest
    Julian, LT
    Vogel, JL
    SYMPOSIUM ON PRECIPITATION EXTREMES: PREDICTION, IMPACTS, AND RESPONSES, 2001, : 133 - 136