Path to Net Zero: 2030 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission Projections for the Philippine Power Generation

In 2020, the power generation sector accounted for more than half (58.34%) of the total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions of the Philippines, making emission reduction efforts in this sector critical to meeting the country's 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) objectives. In this study, the effects of different power generation mix scenarios for 2030 on the GHG emissions from the power generation sector were examined and the results were analyzed and compared to 2010, 2020, and 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) levels. The results show that displacing half of the share of coal power plant generation by doubling the share from natural gas is the country's most realistic shot at realizing a GHG emission reduction from the power generation sector of 20% from the 2030 BAU level. Optimistically, with variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies and battery energy storage systems (BESS) accounting for 50% of the generation mix by 2030, it is possible to achieve up to 73% reduction in GHG emissions from the 2030 BAU level, if the grid facilities will be improved to support higher VRE and BESS penetration in the grid. The results can be used by policymakers to determine if a more straightforward NDC target can be set instead of a cumulative target.