Evaluation of efficient policies on the renewable penetration in electricity sector for an integrated energy planning model in TIMES

Increasing the share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in various sectors of the economy is an important element in achieving energy and climate targets. Considering that electricity is the most advanced sector in integrating large amounts of VRE sources and at the same time the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, the impact of different measures to promote the deployment of VRE in electricity systems is of great importance. Therefore, this study intends to examine how expected future reductions in investment costs for VRE and emission limits will affect energy systems. Investigating and comparing the impact of these two approaches in determining the share of renewables is a significant contribution to this field. To this end, two scenarios are compared with a reference case, calculated with an electricity system model in the TIMES platform. Our results show that both scenarios have a significant impact on the optimal electricity supply portfolio mix, the total cost of the system and the amount of emissions. Furthermore, the assumed cost reductions compared to the introduction of emission limits lead to a stronger increase in renewables. It is therefore important to consider the updated cost of VRE in the planning process when defining implementation plans to achieve various renewable energy targets.