Dust Transport from North Africa to the Middle East: Synoptic Patterns and Numerical Forecast

Every year, large quantities of dust are transported from North Africa to the Americas, Europe, and West Asia. The purpose of this study is to analyze four intense and pervasive dust storms that entered the Middle East from Northern Africa. Satellite products, ground-based remote sensing measurements, reanalysis data, and the outputs of the Aire Limit & eacute;e Adaptation dynamique D & eacute;veloppement InterNational-Dust (ALADIN-Dust) and the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic weather and climate model with Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART) forecasting models were synergized. The dust storms originated from different source regions located in the north, northeastern, and central parts of the Sahara Desert. The transport height of the main dust plumes was about 3-5 km, triggered by the westerly zonal winds. The presence of a closed low over the Eastern Mediterranean and the penetration of a deep trough into North Africa at 500 hPa were the main synoptic circulation patterns favoring long-range dust transport during the four dust events. A comparison of aerosol optical depth (AOD) outputs from the two models with satellite data revealed that although both models forecasted dust transport from Africa to the Middle East, they considerably underestimated the AOD values, especially near the dust sources. The ICON-ART model performed slightly better than ALADIN in forecasting these dust storms, and for longer forecasting leading time, although the performance of both models decreased, the superiority of the ICON-ART model became more apparent.