Maternal exposure to heat and its association with miscarriage in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A population-based cohort study

Background: We sought to improve the current understanding of how climate change impacts women's reproductive health in sub-Saharan Africa. Objectives: We investigated the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage (pregnancy ending before 20 weeks gestation) in a South African setting. Design: Population-based cohort study. Methods: Our study involved data for pregnancies collected via a health and demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa between 2012 and 2016. Data from the South African Weather Service were used to compute maternal exposure to heat during the following time windows for each pregnancy: during the month preceding conception (T1) and during the week preceding the study outcome (either a miscarriage or no miscarriage, T2). Heat exposure was operationalized as a continuous variable and defined as the number of days that a mother was exposed to a mean daily temperature of > 26.6 degrees C (A "hot day," equivalent to a mean daily temperature of > 80 degrees F) during T1 or T2. Binary logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between maternal heat exposure and miscarriage. Results: A total of 105/3477 pregnancies included in our analysis ended in miscarriage (3.0%). Each additional hot day during T1 was associated with a 26% higher odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 1.26; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-1.38). No significant associations were observed between maternal heat exposure during T2 and the odds of miscarriage (odds ratio: 0.94, 95% confidence interval: 0.73-1.20). The relationship between maternal heat exposure during T1 and the odds of miscarriage was J-shaped. Conclusion: There is a clear relationship between maternal heat exposure during the month preceding conception and miscarriage in our sub-Saharan African setting. Given the lack of feasible strategies to reduce pregnancy loss associated with prevailing high temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa, progressive climate change will likely exacerbate existing challenges for women's reproductive health in this region.