Quantifying the Temporal and Spatial Spread of COVID-19:Empirical Evidence from Shanghai

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has caused a grave threat to human life, health, and socio-economic development. It is of great significance to study the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 and evaluate the effect of epidemic prevention policies. This paper employs a spatial dynamic panel data(SDPD) model to analyze the temporal and spatial spread of COVID-19, incorporating the time-varying features of epidemic transmission and the impact of geographic interconnections.Empirical studies on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai during early 2022 show that the intra-regional transmission of COVID-19 dominated the cross-regional one. Additionally, strict policies are found to effectively reduce the transmission risk of COVID-19 and curb the spillover effect of the epidemic in Shanghai on other regions. Based on these results, we provide three policy suggestions. Furthermore,this research methodology can be extended to investigate other infectious diseases, thereby providing a scientific framework and theoretical basis for evaluating the spread risk of pandemics and formulating appropriate strategies.