Land-use suitability assessment for urban development using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis in the Himalayan districts of Shimla, Nainital, and Darjeeling, India

After India gained independence in 1947, notable advancements in healthcare and socio-economic sectors resulted in a remarkable population surge, consequently driving substantial expansion in built-up areas throughout the country. The consequences of the rapid and unplanned expansion are adverse in the Himalayas where earthquake, landslides, flash floods are frequent. The already established hill stations saw a rapid surge in tourism and subsequent urbanization. This study delves into assessing the urban suitability of such hill stations namely Nainital, Shimla, and Darjeeling. The surge in tourism led to alarming population growth with haphazard urbanization which is often severely affected by growing natural hazards. The aim of this study is to assess the urbanization suitability of the regions based on multiple factors that affects the choice of suitable place for urban growth. We employed the GIS based Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach (MCDMA) considering geological, socio-economical, ecological, and prohibitive factors using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The obtained land-use suitability maps for urbanization show that in Nainital the most suitable area for urbanization is the foothills of the Himalayas whereas in Shimla it is around the central and southern part. The northern part and the eastern boundary of Darjeeling are the most suitable area for urbanization. Upon comparing the already existing built-up areas with the AHP derived site suitability results we found that the Darjeeling district is most vulnerable as almost half of the built-up area (49%) lies within a very low to moderate suitable zone. Our findings show that Darjeeling has the highest amount of suitable land for urbanization as the bare ground in the region is not suitable for agriculture. Interestingly, the farmlands in Nainital show highest suitability when urbanization is considered. This brings out a serious problem in urbanization trend and it is observed throughout the world. Thus, more careful research is needed ensuring proper land use and food security for the growing population. This study lays a foundational understanding of challenges associated to urbanization in a tectonically active mountain range.