Mapping the potential spatial distribution for offshore finfish aquaculture in China under climate change

Offshore aquaculture plays an important role in alleviating the pressure of coastal aquaculture and promoting the sustainable development of fisheries. And changes in ocean conditions caused by climate change will have a huge impact on mariculture. Considering the conditions of climate change, this study took the main mariculture fishes in China as the research object, used a species distribution model (SDM) to predict the potential mariculture areas of each fish under the current and different future (2040-2050) climate scenarios, divided the mariculture areas into three potential levels by natural breaks classification method, and calculated the area of different levels potential areas of each fish through the grid number and grid unit area. Additionally, this paper compares the potential area variation of different fishes under different climate scenarios. The results indicate that: (1)In the current climate, the potential area of Yellowtail kingfish(Seriola lalandi) is the largest among seven fishes, estimated at 1,288,500 km2. And the number of varieties suitable for aquaculture in the East China Sea and the South China Sea is more than that in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. (2)Compared with the high potential area of current and future climate scenarios, Large yellow croaker(Larimichthys crocea) has the largest increase, Yellowtail kingfish(Seriola lalandi) decreases under all four future climate scenarios, and both Cobia(Rachycentron canadum) and Allied Kingfish(Seriola dumerili) has small changes. (3)In the future climate scenarios, the number of species potentially suitable for culturing increases significantly in the Bohai and Yellow Sea area, and in the South China Sea, the suitable areas for cultured Large yellow croaker(Larimichthys crocea), gold pompanos (Trachinotus ovatus), Cobia(Rachycentron canadum) and Allied Kingfish(Seriola dumerili) decrease significantly. Overall, the potential areas of each fish show a northward trend.