Evolution of Potential Spatial Distribution Patterns of Carex Tussock Wetlands Under Climate Change Scenarios, Northeast China

Carex tussock plays an important role in supporting biodiversity and carbon sequestration of wetland ecosystems, while it is highly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic activities. Therefore, identifying the potential distribution patterns of Carex tussocks wetland is vital for their targeted conservation and restoration. The current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential habitats distribution of Carex tussocks in Northeast China were predicted using a Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model based on 68 current data of Carex tussock distributions and three groups of environmental variables (bioclimate, topography, soil properties). Results show that isothermality, seasonal precipitation variability and altitude are important factors that determine the distribution of Carex tussock. The high suitable habitat of Carex tussock is about 5.7 x 10(4) km(2) and mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, Changbai Mountains and Da Hinggan Mountains. The area of stable habitats of Carex tussock is significantly higher than the lost and expanded habitats in the future climate scenarios, and the unsuitable habitats mainly occur in Da Hinggan Mountains, Xiao Hinggan Mountains and Changbai Mountains. Overall, Carex tussock wetlands at high altitude and high latitude are more sensitive to climate change, and more attention should be invested in high latitude and high altitude areas.