Fiscal policy for economic growth and environmental quality: insights from Pakistan's fiscal decentralization

Fiscal decentralization is perceived as a viable strategy for fostering economic growth in Pakistan. Concerns persist regarding its potential impact on environmental quality, particularly in relation to increased carbon emissions. Employing diverse analytical methods such as structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) modeling and autoregressive moving average model evaluations, this study comprehensively explores the dynamic relationships among fiscal decentralization, economic development, and environmental quality over the period 1979-2019. Intriguing trends emerge, revealing positive correlations between environmental efficiency and variables, including revenue collection, tax autonomy, and transfer payments. Conversely, a negative correlation is observed between government spending and economic growth. The interplay of these variables results in oscillations in the influence of fiscal decentralization on carbon emissions, presenting a complex challenge for policymakers. Notably, positive fiscal decentralization shocks lead to an increase in carbon emissions, while positive expenditure decentralization and economic development correlate with decreased carbon emissions. Despite economic growth's statistically significant negative impact on carbon emissions, the intricate nature of the relationships underscores the complexity of the link between fiscal decentralization, economic expansion, and environmental outcomes. From a policy perspective, the study emphasizes the need to adjust fiscal policies and coordinate intergovernmental fiscal ties across all government levels to enhance environmental efficiency. These findings provide policymakers with valuable insights to navigate the intricate landscape of fiscal decentralization and its environmental implications.