Modeling of water level trends and characterizing potential influencing factors in Lake Baringo in Kenya

Water plays a significant role in every sector of the ecosystem. The fluctuation of the water levels in lakes is influenced by natural and man-made factors within the water catchment. Lake Baringo, which has no visible outlet, has been rising drastically, causing panic among native communities and businesses on the shores of the lake. Using GIS and Remote Sensing, this study intends to analyze the changes in water lakes using the Automatic water extraction index (AWEI), determine the causes of the fluctuation using Land use Land cover, land surface temperature, soil erosion, and siltation in the lake basin and the lake respectively, precipitation, and later predict of the water level for the year 2030 using the MOLUSCE tool. The tool utilizes an artificial neural network and cellular automata to analyze land use and land cover conveniently. It was found that the lake’s water level has been increasing drastically over the years, and the leading causes of the fluctuations were increased rainfall and human activities within the water basin. There are visible increased human activities within the water basin, such as agriculture, deforestation, settlement, and urbanization. It was also found that there will be a further increase in water level in 2030. With all the above results, it is recommended that better policies be made to conserve the water basin effectively, and a plan should be drawn to re-delineate the new riparian buffer.