Analysis of influencing factors of carbon emissions from China's marine fishery energy consumption under different development scenarios

China's rapid economic development has consumed a large amount of energy, causing serious environmental pollution problems and contributing to global warming. This paper calculates the carbon emissions of the fishery sector and uses Random Forest (RF) for the first time to analyze the influencing factors of future carbon emissions. The results of the study show that increasing carbon sinks dominate the reduction of carbon emissions in the fisheries sector. Carbon sinks will continue to dominate emission reductions in the fisheries sector if positive mitigation measures are taken. Continuing the current pattern of fisheries development, the fishery population has a significant impact on future carbon emissions. Per capita incomes under a crude economic model will inhibit carbon emission reductions. The research results can provide guidance for the development of fishery low carbon economy and the formulation of emission reduction policies.