Characteristics and Influencing Factors of HVAC Energy Consumption in US Residential Buildings

Residential buildings account for over 20% of total energy consumption in the US, with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) consuming the most energy. However, there is little research that comprehensively explores how different influential factors affect energy consumption of space heating (SPH) and space cooling (SPC) separately. Therefore, based on RECS 2015, this study investigates the influencing factors of HVAC energy usage in single-family detached houses, differentiating SPH and SPC. Random forest regression and multiple linear regression are employed to model energy consumption, and their performance is compared. The results illustrate that nonlinear models fit HVAC energy usage better, with higher goodness of fit and fewer predictors. The determinants identified by both methods are similar, emphasizing housing size and climate over demographics, and vary by SPH and SPC. The order of influencing factors for SPH is climate > fuel type > housing size > number of windows; however, that for SPC is climate > housing size > equipment type > AC vintage. Finally, the study confirms that electrified SPH leads to less energy use. The findings contribute to understanding the differences in HVAC energy consumption and their influencing factors, facilitating the design of energy-efficiency programs.