Can motor vehicle robbery hold-up be reduced in a sustainable manner in Bogota?

In Colombia, holdups have been the second more frequent method used in motor vehicle thefts, particularly in major cities in the country. In Bogota, stick-ups generally aimed at stealing private cars, apart from taxis, have shown a reduction down to a stable middle range since 2006. This article is firstly intended to discuss and verify hold-up correlations with persistence factors identified by means of a bibliographical review and open interviews made to judicial police and insurance officers. Factors analyzed include: the relative price of used cars with respect to new vehicles; the absolute price of new cars; the new car share in sales, or relative sales; insurance companies' salvages; car averages, and fake robberies presented as hold-ups. Most relevant in statistical terms are relative sales and salvages. Relative sales reflect clients' favoritism for new cars, and robbers' preference for more commercial vehicles. The later are a good supply factor at the spare-part market used as a cover by stolen-parts merchandisers. An unexpected direct and significant relationship was found with robberies and, particularly, with holdups, and the recidivism and continuity of robbers in their modus operandi. Hence the suggestions exposed at the end with respect to incorporating the persistence factors in police-intervention strategy.