FORECASTING MARGINAL COSTS OF A MULTIPLE-OUTPUT PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY

被引：1

作者：

LADY, GM ^{[1
]}

MOODY, CE ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] COLL WILLIAM & MARY,DEPT ECON,WILLIAMSBURG,VA 23185

来源：

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1993年 / 12卷 / 05期

关键词：

PSEUDO-DATA; FORECASTING; PETROLEUM PRICES; TRANSLOG;

D O I：

10.1002/for.3980120504

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper presents the results of fitting a scaled translog restricted profit function to 'pseudo'-data formed by repeated runs of a large linear programming model of domestic and international refining. The translog approximation is designed to estimate the marginal cost of producing eight petroleum products given the amounts of each product demanded and the price of crude oil. We test the model against out-of-sample data from the refinery model and historical data. The model is used in the US Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook forecasting system.

引用

页码：421 / 436

页数：16

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