RISK-SENSITIVE FILTERING AND SMOOTHING FOR HIDDEN MARKOV-MODELS

In this paper, we address the problem of risk-sensitive filtering and smoothing for discrete-time Hidden Markov Models (HMM) with finite-discrete states. The objective of risk-sensitive filtering is to minimise the expectation of the exponential of the squared estimation error weighted by a risk-sensitive parameter. We use the so-called Reference Probability Method in solving this problem. We achieve finite-dimensional linear recursions in the information state, and thereby the state estimate that minimises the risk-sensitive cost index. Also, fixed-interval smoothing results are derived. We show that L(2) or risk-neutral filtering for HMMs can be extracted as a limiting case of the risk-sensitive filtering problem when the risk-sensitive parameter approaches zero.