Longevity Bond Pricing by a Cohort-based Stochastic Mortality

被引:0
|
作者
Jho, Jae Hoon [1 ]
Lee, Kangsoo [2 ]
机构
[1] Yeungnam Univ, Sch Int Econ & Business, 280 Daehak Ro, Gyongsan 712749, Gyeongbuk, South Korea
[2] Korea Insurance Dev Inst, Seoul, South Korea
关键词
longevity bond; cohort effect; two factor mortality model; mean reverting stochastic process; weighted least squares method; Metropolis algorithm;
D O I
10.5351/KJAS.2015.28.4.703
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
We propose an extension of the Lee and Jho (2015) mean reverting the two factor mortality model by incorporating a period-specific cohort effect. We found that the consideration of cohort effect improves the mortality fit of Korea male data above age 65. Parameters are estimated by the weighted least squares method and Metropolis algorithm. We also emphasize that the cohort effect is necessary to choose the base survival index to calculate longevity bond issue price. A key contribution of the article is the proposal and development of a method to calculate the longevity bond price to hedge the longevity risk exposed to Korea National Pension Services.
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页码:703 / 719
页数:17
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