Spatial Patterns: Demographic Change and Climate Change in German Cities

Climate change and demographic change interact. Impacts in the context of climate change do not solely result from climate change and climate variability. They are a consequence of interrelations between climate and social change. Diverse settlement structures as well as a heterogeneous population lead towards small-scale sensitivities in the face of climate variability and extreme events. Who is sensitive, at what time and at what location become central questions of urban and spatial planning, aiming at sustainable cities and communities, good health and well-being as well as reduced inequalities. Demography is, next to politics, culture, economy, education or religion, the most substantial factor regarding these questions due to its profound knowledge and methodological toolbox on population dynamics. Therefore, the article aims at analysing the spatial patterns of demographic and climate change. The integrated assessment of climatic and demographic indicators reveals major spatial patterns for Germany: urban growth in warmer climate types as well as dismantling and vacancy in drier climate types. In both cases, an extreme change in population volume and/or structure takes place parallel to an increasing climatic exposure. This leads towards growing adaption needs. Planning science and practice needs to revise its taboos (manage retreat) and premises (internal before external development) as well as integrate new findings (adaptive strategies) and technical innovations (digital information sources).