US AND EU FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN THE CEECs : WHAT ABOUT EXCHANGE RATE EFFECTS?

This paper first reviews the mainstream literature concerning the explanatory factors of FDIS in the CEECs and specifically the exchange rate effects. We then present an empirical analysis of medium and long term exchange rate effects over the period 1995/2002, comparing US and EU investors behaviours. As regards the dynamics of FDIS in the CEECs, the empirical results confirm the standard literature: two behavioural logics seem to appear and these are differently weighted for US and EU investors. If European FDI mainly aims at entering a foreign market, the American one also aims at relocating production so as to reexport the product to the domestic market. Notwithstanding the impact of exchange rate seems to be less obvious. Neither the level nor the volatility of the exchange rate appear to be significant,: and neither is the de jure exchange rate regime. Nevertheless, an index of the de facto exchange regime is quite relevant. It is worth noting that in the case of CEECs the problem of exchange rate risk is specific: in the long run, the pegging of their currencies to the euro will become harder and harder before they join the European single currency. So, exchange rate effects may be altered throughout the transition process towards monetary union.