SCENARIO MANAGEMENT OF CASCADE WOOD USE: COMPARISON OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS

The innovation of wood-processing technology significantly improves the material conversion of wood into primary processing products. However, the total value of the processed wood in the outputs of the primary processing depends on both the total volume and the wood flow structure in the cascade of manufacturing. The paper is focused on modelling and comparison of different scenarios by identifying the current flow of timber and links in the cascade of processing in the Czech Republic to the development of selected social and economic indicators. In the analysis, three different scenarios were used. The first scenario took into account only the potential for export absorption to current processing capacities. The second scenario was based on the first, adding parameters for the increase of technological efficiency, and the third scenario beyond the first took account of the capacity increase by investing in the sawn wood and pulp production segment. The results showed that to achieve a balanced value creation and societal effects in the form of high or qualified employment and maximize contributions to the social system, it is necessary to create conditions for the allocation of timber for export. At the same time, it is necessary to optimize the structure of production so that the flow has been as large as possible in the cascade and at the same time it has been able to absorb the impacts from the temporary or changing conditions of the available raw wood volume and structure. Appropriate option, therefore, appears to be a compromise between scenarios number 2 and 3. Thus, to strengthen the (technologically or logistically) stability of the existing capacities and to supplement them with the appropriate structure of several new investments in the production of timber and wood-based panels' production.