ASSESSING THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON GRAZINGLANDS

This paper begins with an introduction to human/grazingland interaction, including its history and a description of the general problems in analyzing and assessing human use of this vast resource. The second section provides a review and synopsis of the current state of modeling the socioeconomic aspects of grazinglands. Aspects of biophysical models which can provide useful information on grazingland ecology and variability in the associated resources and human habitat are discussed. Models assessing human activity in relation to grazinglands are reviewed and a few examples of linkage of biophysical and socioeconomic models into integrated assessments for policy analysis are discussed. Modeling the socioeconomic impacts of climate change is discussed in the last section of this report. Problems encountered in incorporating changes in technology and adaptation to such changes are delineated and a model (FLIPSIM) designed to incorporate technological change is discussed. Methods for incorporating technological change and natural adaptation after climate change are then explored with emphasis on use of macro models as a means of parameterizing region specific micro models. The degree of reliability and resolution needed for models to be useful to policy analysts are assessed and it is argued that coarser resolution models are more efficient. The paper ends with an illustration of one type of analysis of socioeconomic impacts of climate change on grasslands that can be conducted with the current data and methodology using a series of models and a 'representative firm' approach.