THE THEORETICAL ESTIMATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF SYNOPTIC VARIABILITY OF WIND VELOCITY AND OF RADIATIONAL BALANCE ON THE SYNOPTIC VARIABILITY OF THE AIR-TEMPERATURE

This work further develops the ideas Proposed in [10] for the description of year-to-year variability of zonally averaged surface air temperature on the basis of a simple stochastic climate model. We estimate the influence of the synoptic variability of the horizontal heat advection and, separately, of the radiational balance on the synoptic variability of, the air temperature. It is shown that the finite correlation time of stochastic forcing essentially affects the temperature variability which depends on the spatio-temporal structure of the stochastic forcing, and on the intensity of the average horizontal advection. It is shown that the increase in the horizontal velocity variability can either increase or reduce the temperature variability, a dimensionless criterion being found which governs this effect. Theoretical estimates of the temperature variability arc made which agree with the empirical data.