Wind energy variability and links to regional and synoptic scale weather

The accurate characterization of seasonal and inter-annual site-level wind energy variability is essential during wind project development. Understanding the features and probability of low-wind years is of particular interest to developers and financers. However, a dearth of long-term, hub-height wind observations makes these characterizations challenging, and thus techniques to improve these characterizations are of great value. To improve resource characterization, we explicitly link wind resource variability (at hub-height, and at specific sites) to regional and synoptic scale wind regimes. Our approach involves statistical clustering of high-resolution modeled wind data, and is applied to California for a period covering 1980-2015. With this approach, we investigate the unique meteorological patterns driving low and high wind years at five separate wind project sites. We also find wind regime changes over the 36-year period consistent with global warming: wind regimes associated with anomalously hot summer days increased at half a day per year and stagnant conditions increased at one-third days per year. Despite these changes, the average annual resource potential remained constant at all project sites. Additionally, we identify correlations between climate modes and wind regime frequency, a linkage valuable for resource characterization and forecasting. Our general approach can be applied in any location and may benefit many aspects of wind energy resource evaluation and forecasting.