Hydrological and hydraulic modelling applied to the mapping of flood-prone areas

Overbank flooding caused by historically high flows, such as that in the Rio Mundau watershed (lying between the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco) in 2010, has been the cause of widespread damage. The purpose of work described in this paper was to propose a mapping of areas liable to flooding in the township of Rio Largo (Alagoas) in the Rio Mundau watershed by means of an "off-line" coupling of the hydrological/hydraulic models (MGB-IPH/HEC-RAS), through consideration of extreme floods with different return periods for discharge. The hydrological model had a parameterization appropriate for extreme floods, using as input rainfall data with different return periods. Calibration and validation of the hydrological model were adequate in drainage areas larger than 1500 km(2), but were less acceptable in headwater drainage areas where different geology and soil cover gave rise to surface runoff. The hydraulic model showed good agreement with point observations of flood levels in 2010 in both rural and urban areas along the water-course (R-2 = 0.99; RMSE = 1.41 m and CV (RMSE) = 0.04). In urban areas distant from the river, however, flood levels were over-estimated, indicating a need to use more detailed Digital Elevation Models. Flood events with return period greater than 50 years have the potential to cause great damage (floods exceeding 0.46 km2 in the urban area). The study showed that the use of coupled models was a viable approach for mapping areas liable to flooding, when it is not possible to analyse local flow frequencies in support of a hydraulic model.