OUTPUT INFLATION CYCLES IN AN ECONOMY WITH STAGGERED WAGE SETTING

The question whether increased price flexibility is stabilizing in macromodels of the business cycle has been recently questioned by De Long and Summers (1986). The present paper is an attempt to reconsider the question by applying some methods from the theory of nonlinear dynamics, especially bifurcation theory, to the analysis of a dynamic model with sluggish price adjustment. It is argued that, when inflation plays a destabilizing role through the Mundell effect, a stable closed orbit representing the perfect-foresight dynamics of the output-inflation pair may appear in the vicinity of a stationary state. Moreover, bifurcation theory is applied to find analytical results about the relation between the amplitude of the cycles and the 'degree' of flexibility of prices. This relation is shown to be positive in a variety of cases. © 1990.