AGAINST OBJECTIVE STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES

Random-variable models are frequently applied to recorded sequences of hydrological extremes. However, even if the recorded extremes behave like random variables the underlying probability distribution still remains unknown. It follows that better extrapolations of extreme hydrological events will never be achieved by comparing permutations of the latest estimation techniques and specified probability distributions. Yet such estimation/distribution comparisons continue to proliferate through the hydrological literature in the vain hope that some 'best' extrapolation method will emerge in time. The questionable value of the whole comparison process calls into question the worth of objectivity as a desirable attribute in techniques for analysing hydrological extremes.