MEDIUM-TERM FORECAST OF TOURISM ACTIVITY IN CROATIA

Given the exceptional significance of tourism for Croatian national economy, this paper assesses the medium-term potential of tourism activity in Croatia. In this regard, the Box-Jenkins methodology of univariate forecasting has been applied and then combined in a relatively innovative manner by mathematical programming in order to generate the forecast of tourism activity in the next five years. On the one hand, this paper demonstrates a simple but exact technique of combining the univariate models for obtaining multivariate generated forecast, while on the other hand the figures of tourism activity in the forthcoming period can be considered a concrete contribution to the formation of analytical background for economic policy and managerial decision-making. The author concludes that moderate growth of tourism activity in Croatia can be expected in the next five years.