Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method Map of Expected Earthquakes: Results and Prospects

This paper is the first in a series of studies generalizing the Map of Expected Earthquakes (MEE) medium-term earthquake forecast method and analyzing the prospects for its further improvement. Over the past 35 years, the MEE method has been used in seismically active regions around the world with different tectonic conditions and seismic regimes. The average prognostic efficiency of the algorithm was shown to be 2.5 times higher than for random guessing. The MEE can be further improved and upgraded. The new methods of data processing to be implemented into the upgraded MEE will significantly increase the amount of analyzed data, take into account the specific signs of the seismic process at different depths, use lineament-domain-focal (LDF) models of the structure of seismically active zones as stationary prognostic criteria, and build three-dimensional distributions of the probability of strong earthquakes. The improvement will involve an expansion of the list of used seismological precursors that have a physically justified link with the earthquake preparation process and the development of formalized techniques for identifying these precursors in the prognostic practice.