AGE-PERIOD-COHORT ANALYSIS OF LUNG-CANCER MORTALITY IN TAIWAN, 1966-1990

The specific aim of this study was to examine the effects of age, calender period of death, and birth cohort in lung cancer mortality in Taiwan over the period 1966-1990. A log-lineal model modified from the method of Osmond and Gardner was used. Age is the most important predictor of lung cancer mortality according to the model. The oldest age group of 75-79 years old had a lung cancer mortality 185.3 and 79.2 times those for the youngest age group of 30-34 for males and females, respectively. There was also a significant cohort effect. The birth cohorts at the highest risk of lung cancer death were those born around 1931 for males and 1921 for females. A leveled off or declined trend of lung cancer mortality was observed for more recent cohorts. Parameters of the period factor showed an increasing lung cancer mortality from 1966 to 1990. In addition to the adverse effect of cigarette smoking, dietary and environmental factors should be taken into consideration in interpreting the results.