The importance of counties: Examining the predictive validity of a state juvenile risk assessment instrument

Risk assessments have been touted by researchers as a key component of best-practices in corrections; however, there remain issues with the inconsistent predictive validity of these tools across different offender samples. To explore this issue, this study investigated the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment across 33 counties in Ohio. The results indicated that while the tool was predictive at the state level, there was significant variation across the counties. Further analyses showed that the instrument could predict recidivism in counties on which it was not originally designed and that it performed significantly better in counties with higher crime rates.