Iraq and the Region Since the War of 2003

The Iraq crisis has generated broad regional implications, including impact on regional democratization, with Iraq considered by the US administration as a model, the heightened radicalization of Islamic groups, the regional empowerment of the Shi'i communities and the growth of public antiAmericanism. The crisis has also aroused particular concerns for countries in the region, including Iran, Turkey, Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan and Egypt. Besides discussing these actual implications, an attempt is made to forecast the regional impact of the crisis in the context of four major scenarios, including the persistence of the crisis situation as it has been developing, the success of the Iraqi system in installing a stable and elected government, an Iraqi civil war and the partitioning of the country into Sunni, Shi'i and Kurdish units. It is concluded that the impact of the crisis has been mostly disruptive and that the assessment would hopefully contribute towards a reappraisal of the course of the crisis by the major actors involved.