Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble

被引：689
|
作者：
Krishnamurti, TN [1 ]
Kishtawal, CM
LaRow, TE
Bachiochi, DR
Zhang, Z
Williford, CE
Gadgil, S
Surendran, S
机构：
[1] Florida State Univ, Dept Meteorol, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA
[2] Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Bangalore, Karnataka, India
来源：
SCIENCE | 1999年 / 285卷 / 5433期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1126/science.285.5433.1548
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.
引用
收藏
页码：1548 / 1550
页数：3
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] Improving multimodel medium range forecasts over the Greater Horn of Africa using the FSU superensemble
    Kipkogei, O.
    Bhardwaj, A.
    Kumar, V.
    Ogallo, L. A.
    Opijah, F. J.
    Mutemi, J. N.
    Krishnamurti, T. N.
    [J]. METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, 2016, 128 (04) : 441 - 451
  • [22] Evaluating Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Climate Forecasts on Rangeland Plant Production in the California Annual Grassland
    Schantz, Merilynn C.
    Hardegree, Stuart P.
    James, Jeremy J.
    Becchetti, Theresa
    Abatzoglou, John T.
    Hegewisch, Katherine C.
    Sheley, Roger L.
    [J]. RANGELAND ECOLOGY & MANAGEMENT, 2023, 88 : 135 - 142
  • [23] Multimodel based superensemble forecasts for short and medium range NWP over various regions of Africa
    J. N. Mutemi
    L. A. Ogallo
    T. N. Krishnamurti
    A. K. Mishra
    T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar
    [J]. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2007, 95 : 87 - 113
  • [24] A robust multimodel framework for ensemble seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts
    Mendoza, Pablo A.
    Rajagopalan, Balaji
    Clark, Martyn P.
    Cortes, Gonzalo
    McPhee, James
    [J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2014, 50 (07) : 6030 - 6052
  • [25] Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multithousand, multimodel ensemble of simulations
    Piani, C.
    Sanderson, B.
    Giorgi, F.
    Frame, D. J.
    Christensen, C.
    Allen, M. R.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2007, 112 (D24)
  • [26] Improving Global Model Precipitation Forecasts over India Using Downscaling and the FSU Superensemble. Part II: Seasonal Climate
    Chakraborty, Arindam
    Krishnamurti, T. N.
    [J]. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2009, 137 (09) : 2736 - 2757
  • [27] Real-time multianalysis-multimodel superensemble forecasts of precipitation using TRMM and SSM/I products
    Krishnamurti, TN
    Surendran, S
    Shin, DW
    Correa-Torres, RJ
    Kumar, TSVV
    Williford, E
    Kummerow, C
    Adler, RF
    Simpson, J
    Kakar, R
    Olson, WS
    Turk, FJ
    [J]. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2001, 129 (12) : 2861 - 2883
  • [28] Improving tropical precipitation forecasts from a multianalysis superensemble
    Krishnamurti, TN
    Kishtawal, CM
    Shin, DW
    Williford, CE
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2000, 13 (23) : 4217 - 4227
  • [29] Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI
    Barnston, AG
    Mason, SJ
    Goddard, L
    DeWitt, DG
    Zebiak, SE
    [J]. BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2003, 84 (12) : 1783 - +
  • [30] On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts
    Weisheimer, A.
    Palmer, T. N.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 2014, 11 (96)
12345