Relationship between second grade oral reading fluency and third grade reading

Oral reading fluency is a critical feature and outcome of early literacy instruction and it has amassed great attention as a powerful predictor of success at all levels of schooling. We examined relationships between second grade oral reading fluency scores and third grade end-of-grade reading achievement scores for students (N = 9562) in a large school district in the United States. Stakeholder interviews were also conducted. In our model, oral reading fluency and reading comprehension scores were moderately correlated; oral reading fluency was the strongest predictor of subsequent achievement, followed by ethnicity; growth on oral reading fluency was not strongly associated with end-of-grade performance; and greater than 90% of students classified as 'at risk' on benchmark assessments performed poorly on third grade assessments. Stakeholders believed that oral reading fluency testing was not necessary above selected levels of proficiency. We discuss implications of our findings for future research and practice.