ESTIMATING PROBABILITIES OF EXTREME SEA-LEVELS

被引：92
|
作者：
TAWN, JA
机构：
来源：
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS | 1992年 / 41卷 / 01期
关键词：
EXTREMAL INDEX; EXTREME VALUE THEORY; GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION; JOINT PROBABILITIES METHOD; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION; NON-STATIONARITY; SEA-LEVEL; TIDES;
D O I：
10.2307/2347619
中图分类号：
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号：
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要：
A key problem in the design of sea defences is the estimation of quantiles of the distribution of annual maximum hourly sea-levels. Traditional statistical analyses f ail to exploit the considerable knowledge of the astronomical tidal component of the sea; consequently the corresponding results are highly site specific. Using results from extreme value theory an ad hoc method developed by oceanographers to overcome this problem is revised. The method is illustrated with data from three sites on the east coast of England which exhibit widely differing characteristics.
引用
收藏
页码：77 / 93
页数：17
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