A THEORY OF FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS

被引：25

作者：

KRZYSZTOFOWICZ, R ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UNIV VIRGINIA,SCH ENGN & APPL SCI,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22901

来源：

WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH | 1993年 / 29卷 / 12期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/93WR00961

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A local flood warning system typically serves a small community situated in a headwater area and exposed to flash floods or rapid riverine floods. Forecasts of such flood events are characterized by short lead times and large uncertainties, A Bayesian theory is formulated for a local flood warning system built of three functional components: monitor, forecaster, and decider. The theory offers a modeling framework and mathematical concepts necessary for (1) developing optimal decision rules for issuing warnings based on imperfect forecasts, (2) evaluating system performance statistically, and (3) computing the ex ante economic benefits from a system.

引用

页码：3981 / 3994

页数：14

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